Whom Do You Trust?

A couple of years ago, I was asked to to a presentation to an international e-commerce symposium at the Sobey School of Business on the importance of analysts’ opinions when selecting online vendors.  Then, yesterday, I was doing a little research about Direct Buy for my post on asking customers to pay to be customers.  There’s a connection.

During the preparation for my Sobey talk, I got sidetracked from the main topic of, “Can you trust Analysts to be fair and impartial” (answer: not any more), and ended up exploring just who could  be trusted in the world of online commerce.  On ebay, the vendors are rated by past customers, but that could be easily rigged.  There are social recommendation tools like Digg, Reddit and many others that rate content, but those also are often rigged by clever hackers.  By the end of the presentation, I had swung around to Bloggers (in aggregate) as the most reliable source of influence-free information.  Sure some bloggers have been bought, and blogs that rely on advertising revenue have certain agendas, and some companies have even created “fake” blogs that they pretend not to be involved with; but the vast majority of us 120,000,000 bloggers aren’t trying to do anything other than voice our opinions.

When I went to do research about Direct Buy, the first term I googled was Direct Buy Complaints.  That search took me to this http://www.infomercialscams.com/scams/direct_buy_scams, which oddly enough has 23 people mostly rabidly happy with their experience.  Some people caution that you should really think it through, and one complains of a rude person, but the overall tone is very positive.  I think it may be a case of Direct Buy creating their own “complaints,” but I can’t know for sure.

Then I googled “direct buy” “consumer reports”  and was not directed to the magazine (as I was expecting), but rather to a blog called The Consumerist.  She did, in turn, link to the magazine, but it was her context that exactly adressed my curiosity, and the fact that it was a person, as opposed to some quasi-official complaint log that didn’t seem to log any complaints.

So, I’ll conclude the same way I did my presentation in Halifax: take the expertise of an analyst, and the trust of a friend, combine them, and you get the blogging community.

36

Who Are These Women on Twitter?

For those of you who don’t know what Twitter is, there will be a glossary at the end.

I use Twitter very infrequently.  I probably post on average once a week and follow only 14 people.  Until recently, I had only 18 followers, who had trickled in over the last 6 months or so, and all of whom I knew personally, or was a fan of.

Then, in one brief span of a few hours, these 5 ladies all became followers of me.  I have no idea who any of them are, or where they would get my name.  I find it curious that they are all female, and all (as far a you can tell from the images) fairly attractive.

So is this some kind of porn-spam thing that we’re going to have to start contending with in yet another Web 2.0 forum?

(BTW, it never occurred to me to go and look at their profiles until right now, and they’ve all been “suspended” and are being “investigated due to suspicious activity.”)

Glossary:

Twitter is an online service that some people call a micro-blog.  Once you join, you can write small (140 characters or less) pieces as often as you like.  A lot of people use it with their phones, so it can be an on-the-go stream of conscienceness experience for frequent users.

Followers are people who have signed up to see someone else’s Twitter posts.  So when they log into Twitter, they see all the most recent posts by only the people they follow.  You don’t need anyone’s permission to follow someone, but they are under no obligation to follow you in return.

The Twitter site explains it better, or there’s this cute video:

29

We’re All Connected

Everyone knows the “Six Degrees of Separation” theory – that anyone in the world can be connected to anyone else through 6 or fewer intermediate acquaintances.  And its spin-off game, “Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon” - attempting to link any actor or actress who ever lived to Mr. Bacon through other actors or actresses whom they have appeared in the same film with.

Several years ago, a University of Virginia student, Brett Tjaden, created the Oracle of Bacon, an online service which will calculate the “Bacon Number” for any actor, living or dead.  The Bacon Number (let’s use B# from now on) is the count of relationships someone has to go though to get to Kevin.  So as an example, Elvis Presley was in Change of Habit  with Edward Asner, who was in JFK  with Kevin Bacon.  Elvis and Kevin never worked together.  So Elvis has a B# of 2, and Ed has a B# of 1.  Kevin himself, of course, has a B# of zero.

Then Tjaden went further and calculated the B# for every one of the 800,000 or so people in the Internet Movie Database.  It turns out the the average B# for all members of that database is about 2.8.  So, on average, every movie performer in the world, can be linked to Kevin in 3 or fewer steps.

So, if you can link YOURself to anyone in the movie industry in 3 or fewer steps, you can claim a B# of 6 or less and (kinda) prove the Six Degrees theory.  I tried it for myself, thinking of one Hollywood connection I have: my friend Rob Williams has a brother named Steve “Spaz” Williams, who was a technical effects guy and director for movies like Spawn, Eraser, Terminator 2, and Jurassic Park.  I plugged Spaz into the Oracle, and his B# is 2: he directed The Wild, which starred Dominic Scott Key, who was in Saving Angelo  with Kevin.  So my B# is 4: Rob, Spaz, Dominic, Kevin.

I tried it with some others, like Cindy Crawford (whom I chatted with on a plane for 3 hours once).  But Richard Gere (her husband at the time) only had a B# of 2 as well, so no better than Spaz.  Then I thought of Robin Williams – I had a beer with him once at a convention in Vancouver.  Robin’s B# is 2, so mine is 3 through that route since I “know” Robin directly!

So give me 40 acres while I turn this rig around to marketing again.  I’ve mentioned the “she told 2 friends, and she told 2 friends, and so on, and so on,” phenomenon before, and how effective word of mouth between trusted acquaintances is as a message propagation technique.  But 2 raised to the sixth power is only 64 people.  Imagine if everyone told ALL their friends – I could get a message to Kevin in three or four iterations, and theoretically everyone in the world in just 6.  It would be implausible using traditional communication techniques, but some of those wacky Facebook kids out there can share their thoughts with hundreds or thousands of friends instantly.  What will it be like when we’re ALL that connected?

24

Whales Will Be Watched this Weekend

This weekend, we are going to beautiful St. Andrews-by-the-Sea, NB, to go whale watching.  We will be sailing out into the Passamaquoddy Bay (part of the Bay of Fundy) on the Jolly Breeze, a 72′ gaff and square rigged cutter.  We will be staying at the only accomodation in town that has an indoor swimming pool (for my daughter’s pleasure), the St. Andrews Motor Inn.

I had a wide range of choices to select from, all the results of a series of quick Googles.  I probably shortlisted 4 or 5 whale watching outfits and 6 or 7 B&Bs and other accommodation options out of the dozens of (relevant) hits I got.

But the thing is, there are dozens more of both kinds of operation that were completely invisible to me because they didn’t show up in the first two pages of the Google searches.  It’s as if they don’t exist. 

If you bothered to click on the links to either of the businesses, you’ll note that their sites are no great shakes.  But they were sufficient to get on my radar, and that’s why they’ll be getting our business.

ASIDE #1:  The large structure up on the hill on the Motor Inn’s main page is the Algonquin Hotel, where I worked as a lifeguard in the mid 80s.  We’re not staying there because their “pool” is a beach on a private cove, and probably a tad nippy right now.  They also have a regular outdoor pool, but not heated.

ASIDE #2:  Because of this trip, there will be no post here tomorrow.  And none on Monday, either, because it’s Canadian Thanksgiving.  Happy Turkey!

Which Would You Choose?

Most of you have probably heard the math-class fable of the father who offered his son an allowance of $10 per week, to which the clever boy replied, “How about I only take one cent this week.  But you have to double it each week, so 2 cents next week, 4 pennies the week after, etc.”  The father quickly agrees to this bargain.  Within 6 months, the boy has amassed over $670,000.  The power of exponential growth is the lesson.

Another example of this is one I read in Malcolm Gladwell’s The Tipping Point:  take a sheet of paper, and fold it in half.  Repeat this 50 times. 

(I know that it’s impossible to fold a piece of paper in half more than 7 times – just suspend your disbelief for this thought experiment.)

How tall would the resulting stack be?  Some might say a foot, some might say the height of a fridge.  The actual answer is that it would stretch upwards almost to the sun.

People have a hard time understanding exponential growth, but as a marketing tool it can be very powerful.  As I wrote about here, it can dramatically grow a customer base.  But, as Gladwell points out, for something to grow exponentially, it has to be “contagious.”  Or to put it another way, “sticky.”  Or, in the context of marketing, “REMARKABLE.”  It has to be a product or place or service that is so good, people REMARK on it to their friends.

Why I Don’t Use RSS (Much)

When I asked folks earlier this week to leave a comment on that post if they are a regular visitor to my blog (and thank you very much those who did), I found that about half of you are subscribed to me – you are giving me permission to PUSH my posts at you via RSS rather than coming by and PULLING the articles yourselves.

RSS makes a tonne of sense, and it is the epitomy of permission marketing – relevant, anticipated content delivered to an actual person who has asked for it.  And it is one of the results of Web 2.0 and the Long Tail niche-ification of information – totally personalized content delivered to your door every day, as if someone was printing a newspaper or producing a TV show just for you.  But I don’t subscribe to many feeds, and here’s why:  I’m a moody  browser.

There are some sites I go to every day, like Seth, Scott, and Penmachine. There are others that I go to when I want to spend more time exploring the ephemera of the Web, like BoingBoing, YesButNoButYes and Truemors.  And there are some that I only go to when I’m completely goofing off, like Geekologie, xkcd, Dave Barry, and Indexed.   The content I crave varies with what mood I’m in and how much time I have available.

So I don’t use RSS (except for news and weather) for two reasons: first, I might not WANT to know that there’s a new post at YesButNoButYes (like there is every couple of hours) right when it happens – I want to drift by and soak up a couple of days’ worth when I feel like it.  And second, there’s a bit of a treasure-hunter style thrill when I check blogs that are updated less frequently (like Netdud and Basic Instructions) and find a new post – it would have been less “exciting” to have it pop up in my Google Reader.

Way Clever Music Video

This is a hilarious music video for a song called Toe Jam  by the band British Port Authority  that includes Fatboy Slim and David Byrne.  The song itself is catchy and clever, but the video is awesome.  There are about a dozen attractive people in a 70s setting, who remove all their clothes and dance around.  Their naughty bits are covered by those black rectangular censor strips.  Wait for about a minute into the piece to see the neat stuff they do with those black bars…

BTW, this does have something to do with marketing – this video will go hugely viral and bring attention to a song that would never get radio airplay.

Webinar No-Shows

I’ve noticed a trend in Webinar attendance lately:  just as many people seem to be registering for live online events, but far fewer are actually showing up at the appointed time.

This highly unscientific observation is based on nothing more than my personal experience, but in my career I have had pretty good exposure to many different types of Webinars over the last 10 years or so.  I have seen events where the email invitation was sent to 16,000 people and ones where the invitees were in the dozens.  I have seen clickthroughs in the 50% + range and less than one percent.  I have seen conversions (the number of people who click though that actually fill out the registration) from 100% to less than 25%.  I have seen multi-touch methods like following up the email with voice mail or actual telemarketer event boosting dramatically increase the number of registrations.

Of course there are dozens of variables that drive these wild variations in success: the level of permission you have with your intended audience; the relevance of your topic to them; the quality of your presenters; how well organized you are; the history you have (or don’t have) of delivering informative content; timing; the frequency of reminder emails you send; etc.  But one thing had seemed to be fairly constant in my experience:  about 50% of people who register for a live online event actually show up at the appointed time.

But not any more.  I have seen attendee rates slowly drift down to where 25% – 30% is considered a good showing, and 10% is not unheard of.  I can think of several possibilies for this decline:

1. Webinars are no longer a novelty.

2. The presentation skills of most people are abysmal, and the general population is starting to figure that out.

3. In this On-Demand, Information-Pull world, even people who want to view the content know that it will be available as a recording, and they can watch it later.

4. People are busier and schedules are more fluid, and when daily calendars are getting shuffled, items that don’t involve interacting one-on-one are the first to be sacrificed.

The good news is, that despite people’s failure to show up at the Webinar, post-event follow-up is just as effective as before.  I have even seen a couple of recent campaigns where registration numbers were decent, event attendance was poor, but the leads coming from following up with the no-show registrants have been stellar.  I guess the message is, that volunteering to be given more information about something is the key indicator of interest (or granting of permission) — whether you actually show up to collect that information is secondary.

Googlazon, What Should I Watch Tonight?

I have 998 channels of cable TV coming into my house.  Once you take out the music-only, pay-per-view, and other specialty channels, there are perhaps 200 or so that have content I might watch.  This is a barely  manageable number – by using my Y-chromosome super-surfing skills, I can be fairly confident I have a good handle on everything that’s on, and that I am watching the show that maximizes my viewing pleasure.  (Or be confident that there’s nothing on that I want to watch, and that I should go read a book or take a walk or something.)

Of course, this system isn’t perfect.  I have never seen the majority of TV shows out there.  Usually this is OK – I have a pretty good idea what kind of programs Two and a Half Men  and Flip This House  are, even without ever seeing them, and I’m confident that I can skip them without missing much (that I would enjoy, anyway).  But I’ve also never seen The Sopranos, Six Feet Under, or My Name is Earl.  For all I know, one of those shows could be PERFECT for my tastes, and replace House  as my favourite show.  But I soldier on with a kind of blind faith that I am getting the most out of my Toshiba regardless.

But what about when the Long Tail effect starts to permeate broadcast media and there are 1,000 channels?  Or a million?  How will I know that I am watching the programming that is most suited to me?  This is where the Google cloud-mind and the Amazon taste-trackers will really add value.  I predict that in less than 10 years, Google will know everything I ever watch and doubtless will be able to tell how much I am enjoying it by measuring the dilation of my pupils and monitoring my pulse.  When Google detects that I really like a particular show, it will ask Amazon to mine its recommendation engine for other shows that millions of people who saw the one I’m watching also liked.  By fine-tuning its selections over time according to my relative satisfaction, Googlazon will eventually arrive at the ideal mix of programming for my individual requirements.

100th Post

Yesterday was the 100th post in this blog.  I had meant to comment on my hundredth post when I got to that point, but it slipped by without me noticing.  I’m taking that as a sign that this is not just a novelty or a flash in the pan for me, but actually something I do now: I’m a blogger.

Some stats: I’ve had 6,981 total views and 93 comments have been left.  I have cracked the top million at Technorati – I’m now the 963,870th ranked blog in the world.

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